Hurricane DORA

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HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.1N 103.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  55SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 108.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 101.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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