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Tropical Storm DORA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011
 
DORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE
TONIGHT.  AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DORA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 23.5N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 24.4N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 26.4N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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