Tropical Storm DORA
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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011
DORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE
TONIGHT. AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DORA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 23.5N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.4N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z 26.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER PASCH
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