ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011 THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS RELEASED...BUT NOTHING AT THE SURFACE ANY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED. SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SINCE THE TIME OF THE AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. WITH THE CYCLONE OVER 23C WATER AND HEADING FOR EVEN COLDER WATER...A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN IS FORECAST. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE MID- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING WESTWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...BUT THAT SEPARATION MIGHT BE OCCURRING NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND STILL CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF MEAN. THE REGIONAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE COAST THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT EVEN IF THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF DORA BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 22.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 23.3N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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