ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011 DORA CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 25-30 N MI-WIDE EYE THAT HAS WARMED AND BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO T6.2. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T5.5 WERE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS...BECAUSE THE COLDEST RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE ON THE 2345 UTC SATELLITE IMAGE HAD A FEW BREAKS. BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT. DORA HAS TIME FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER DECREASING SSTS. A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR VERY SOON AS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THEREAFTER...DORA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A HEADING BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH NOTABLE EAST-WEST SHIFTS OCCURRING FROM RUN TO RUN DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTED BACK EASTWARD...BUT FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITHIN THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.0N 105.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.0N 106.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.2N 108.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 19.1N 109.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.9N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 25.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC