ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011 DORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW DORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW. IN FACT THE SHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. FROM THE 1800 UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95 KT...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL INDICATE A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...SSTS FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...AND SO SHOULD THE WINDS OF DORA. THE LATER PART OF THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND DORA SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS MOVING 295/14. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...SAVE THE HWRF...KEEP DORA WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACTUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.5N 104.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC