Hurricane DORA

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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DORA ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES.  ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS
NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE
INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
INCREASING...AND THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 80 KT.

WHILE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING STEADILY DURING ITS
LIFETIME...IT HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. 
PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY LOCAL
NHC SHEAR DIAGNOSTICS.  WHATEVER THE CASE...AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...DORA SHOULD INTENSIFY...AND
COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PEAKING IN A
DAY OR TWO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  A RAPID DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY AS DORA MOVES ACROSS RATHER COLD WATERS
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS OVER WATERS LESS THAN 21C.  

DORA CONTINUES SPEEDING ALONG TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.  
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS SHOULD CAUSE DORA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 
THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48
HOURS...JUST A SMIDGE FASTER.  IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A NARROW RIDGE
BETWEEN DORA AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE...CAUSING A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 14.9N 103.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.9N 104.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 18.3N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 19.3N 109.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 20.8N 111.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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