Tropical Storm DORA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011
 
DORA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE
OCCASIONALLY SHOWED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES ANY INNER CORE REMAIN
DISORGANIZED.  SINCE THERE ARE NO ESTIMATES OF THIS SYSTEM AS A
HURRICANE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT.  

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THERE IS PLENTY OF HIGH SSTS AND LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS IN ITS
PATH.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE INNER CORE CAN BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE NHC
WIND SPEED FORECAST REMAINS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION.  IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND A RAPID WEAKENING
IS LIKELY.
 
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF DORA WAS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION OF
295/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BASICALLY MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODELS IS
VERY SMALL DURING THAT TIME AS THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND A RIDGE
OVER NORTH AMERICA REMAIN STRONG. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS...UKMET AND
HWRF...SHOW DORA AS A THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG RANGE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...MOSTLY
DUE TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE. 
 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS DORA PASSES.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 12.8N  98.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 13.7N 100.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.9N 103.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 16.1N 105.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 17.1N 106.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 19.1N 109.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 21.0N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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