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Tropical Storm DORA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER OF DORA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...A SSMIS
PASS AT 0242 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER-CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF 50
TO 55 KT.

DORA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE AND
POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...KEEPING THE CENTER
OF DORA OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF DORA APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 29C AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...
THE MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DORA TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH LATER TODAY AND TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY OR
EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AS DORA
MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 11.4N  95.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 12.1N  98.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 13.3N 100.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 14.5N 103.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 15.7N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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