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Tropical Storm DORA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011
 
DORA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE LARGE CURVED
BAND THAT NOW WRAPS ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35
KT AND T2.0/30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE
T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1610Z INDICATED A COUPLE
OF 40-KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN A LARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. DORA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT
THIS MEAN MOTION AS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN CENTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE
CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DORA IS STEERED BY THE LARGE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY ERODE LIKE THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE CENTER OF
DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LAST OF MULTIPLE
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAS MERGED INTO THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS DORA PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
WATER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
72-84 HOURS...AFTER WHICH RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE 1610Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 10.7N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 11.1N  94.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 11.9N  97.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 13.0N 100.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 14.3N 102.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 17.0N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 18.7N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC