Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DORA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011
 
DORA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE LARGE CURVED
BAND THAT NOW WRAPS ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35
KT AND T2.0/30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE
T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1610Z INDICATED A COUPLE
OF 40-KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN A LARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. DORA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT
THIS MEAN MOTION AS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN CENTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE
CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DORA IS STEERED BY THE LARGE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY ERODE LIKE THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE CENTER OF
DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LAST OF MULTIPLE
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAS MERGED INTO THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS DORA PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
WATER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
72-84 HOURS...AFTER WHICH RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE 1610Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 10.7N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 11.1N  94.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 11.9N  97.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 13.0N 100.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 14.3N 102.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 17.0N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 18.7N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC