Tropical Storm CALVIN

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TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011
 
THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY AND THE FIRST
VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS
A 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS A
3.7...OR 59 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. WITH IMPROVED SUBSEQUENT
ORGANIZATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. CALVIN HAS A
LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AS IT IS ABOUT TO REACH
THE COOL SSTS AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO
DESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO RELAX OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS IN
THE SHORT TERM...AND TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
CALVIN HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ABOUT
15 KT...PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...CALVIN SHOULD SLOW AND
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE GFDN
MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITION THAN ANTICIPATED
AT THE INITIAL TIME.
 
THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON A CIRA
ANALYSIS OF THE 0933Z AMSU PASS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 16.2N 107.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.6N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 17.2N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 17.7N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 18.3N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
 
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