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Hurricane BEATRIZ


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE BEATRIZ WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011               
0300 UTC TUE JUN 21 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2       2       3      13      44      61
TROP DEPRESSION  1       6       3       6      31      37      30
TROPICAL STORM  39      37      44      54      49      19       9
HURRICANE       61      55      51      37       7       1       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       57      45      40      29       6       1       X
HUR CAT 2        3       7       8       6       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       2       3       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    75KT    75KT    70KT    50KT    30KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   9(21)   1(22)   X(22)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   3(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAN BLAS       34  3  13(16)  13(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SAN BLAS       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  9  41(50)  12(62)   2(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
P VALLARTA     50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
P VALLARTA     64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 78  15(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50 10  35(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34 85   8(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
MANZANILLO     50 16  16(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MANZANILLO     64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)  11(23)   1(24)   X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  3  17(20)  27(47)   6(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC