Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  99.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  99.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  99.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N  99.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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