Hurricane BEATRIZ

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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
 
THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ MOVED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND APPEARS TO HAVE
CAUSED SOME WEAKENING.  THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND TOPS HAVE WARMED AS WELL.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1200 UTC
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS BEATRIZ
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 25C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS.  ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.  BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
...WHICH TAKES BEATRIZ OVER COOLER WATER MORE QUICKLY...THE NEW
FORECAST INTENSITIES DECREASE FASTER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/12...AS BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE
TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  IN FACT...THE ACTUAL POSITION COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE LEFT THAN THE CURRENT ESTIMATE.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND THAT
TIME A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS
BEATRIZ RAPIDLY BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TOWARD THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE SHALLOW BAM AFTER THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 19.6N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 20.3N 106.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 20.8N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 21.1N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 21.2N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 21.3N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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