ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NOT YET COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING...AS SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER JOGGING NORTHWARD EARLIER...ADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MORE NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...330/7. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS SHOWING ADRIAN TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CONVERSELY... THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS HAS SLOWED TODAY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS ADRIAN REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STEADY...OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS ADRIAN REMAINS OVER WATERS OF 29-30 C AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.5N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC