Tropical Storm ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
IS NOT YET COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING...AS SEEN IN
INFRARED IMAGES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
AFTER JOGGING NORTHWARD EARLIER...ADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...330/7.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE TRACK MODELS
REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS SHOWING ADRIAN TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  CONVERSELY...
THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS HAS SLOWED TODAY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS ADRIAN REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  STEADY...OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IS LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS ADRIAN REMAINS OVER WATERS OF 29-30
C AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
THE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 13.5N 101.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
 
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