| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane RINA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011               
2100 UTC WED OCT 26 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       3       4      11      27      43
TROP DEPRESSION  X       4      11      11      25      35      34
TROPICAL STORM  12      49      66      61      54      35      22
HURRICANE       88      46      20      24      11       3       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       77      38      16      19       9       3       1
HUR CAT 2        9       6       2       3       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        2       2       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        1       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    70KT    60KT    60KT    50KT    35KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   3(19)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  8  68(76)  10(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   1(88)
COZUMEL MX     50  1  32(33)  11(44)   1(45)   X(45)   1(46)   X(46)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2   5( 7)  18(25)  17(42)  13(55)   X(55)   1(56)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)  13(20)   6(26)   1(27)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  13(21)   4(25)   2(27)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:09 UTC