Hurricane RINA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
0300 UTC WED OCT 26 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS
...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 5 13 28
TROP DEPRESSION X X 4 6 9 21 32
TROPICAL STORM X 3 15 33 51 53 37
HURRICANE 99 97 81 59 35 14 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 21 26 40 26 11 3
HUR CAT 2 48 40 30 13 6 2 X
HUR CAT 3 42 31 21 5 2 1 X
HUR CAT 4 4 6 4 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 100KT 100KT 100KT 85KT 75KT 60KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 3(27)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) 2(33)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19)
COZUMEL MX 34 3 56(59) 30(89) 3(92) 1(93) X(93) 1(94)
COZUMEL MX 50 X 8( 8) 45(53) 8(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64)
COZUMEL MX 64 X 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
BELIZE 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
BELIZE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUANAJA 34 24 2(26) 3(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) 1(32)
GUANAJA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 4( 6) 22(28) 24(52) 21(73) 3(76) X(76)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 19(32) 1(33) X(33)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 24(31) 11(42) 2(44)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 18(30) 8(38) 1(39)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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