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Hurricane RINA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS
...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       3       7      14      30
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       2       7       8      21      32
TROPICAL STORM   X       2      13      22      44      53      35
HURRICANE       99      98      85      69      41      12       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      20      27      29      30      10       2
HUR CAT 2       48      41      31      23       9       2       X
HUR CAT 3       42      32      22      14       2       X       X
HUR CAT 4        4       5       4       3       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  100KT   100KT   100KT   100KT    80KT    60KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   3(22)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  14(24)   2(26)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   3(19)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   2(15)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   7(19)   2(21)   1(22)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  2  15(17)  51(68)  18(86)   3(89)   X(89)   X(89)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   2( 2)  23(25)  29(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
BELIZE         34  2   8(10)   8(18)   3(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)
BELIZE         50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUANAJA        34 53   6(59)   2(61)   2(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)
GUANAJA        50  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GUANAJA        64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  1   3( 4)  11(15)  26(41)  25(66)   3(69)   1(70)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  20(29)   2(31)   1(32)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)  12(32)   2(34)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)  14(24)   8(32)   1(33)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   2(15)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:09 UTC