Hurricane RINA

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HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RINA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A
SMALL EYE SEEN IN AN 1128 UTC SSMIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED 12Z DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
HURRICANE IS SITUATED OVER A REGION OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR
HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE EXPERIENCES INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD
THE LATEST RUN OF THE LGEM MODEL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...AS RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN RINA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
IS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK
LYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

BASED ON THE FASTER TRACK FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 17.4N  83.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 17.7N  84.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.2N  85.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.1N  86.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.2N  87.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 22.0N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  84.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 22.5N  83.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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