Hurricane PHILIPPE

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HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011
 
AFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS
FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  A 1009Z SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM FNMOC SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...WHILE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD COVER WITH AN
EYE PERHAPS BECOMING VISIBLE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.5 AND 4.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.
THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT AT ADVISORY TIME.
 
PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8
KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION
OF PHILIPPE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
WHILE PHILIPPE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY...THIS PEAK WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE DRASTICALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SO WHILE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SHEAR AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS...AS THE PURELY DYNAMICAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
UNREALISTICALLY IMPERVIOUS TO THE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND
CONSEQUENTLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE.  AROUND 48
HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS
AROUND THE CYCLONE.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW...THOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK A
TRANSITION.

THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 27.8N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 28.6N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 29.6N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 31.0N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 33.4N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 39.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z 45.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z 51.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 
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