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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011
 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A COUPLE MORE MICROWAVE IMAGES ARRIVED
AND INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE REMAINED
WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH 1000 UTC.  THE IMAGES REVEALED A LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  THIS DATA ALONG
WITH DVORAK AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WAS
POSSIBLY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE
MASS.  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT.
 
ACCORDING TO A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS...PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER
ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR.  AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO A NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO.  AFTER 48 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE AND
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  PHILIPPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A FRONT WITHIN 4 OR 5 DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS PHILIPPE AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS.
 
PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS NEARING
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON.  THE
LARGE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO RECURVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER GIVEN ITS TENACITY 
PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINED AS A CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 23.9N  59.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 24.0N  60.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 24.5N  61.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 25.4N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 26.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 28.5N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 31.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 36.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:07 UTC