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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011
 
PHILIPPE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN. WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECENTLY WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR SOME TIME. THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
AFFECTING THE STORM HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED. A LATE AFTERNOON
MICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN CLOUD MASS...WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE
IN THE TILT OF THE VORTEX SINCE EARLIER TODAY. OVERALL...THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND AN
AVERAGE OF 0000 UTC DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS RESULTS IN HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT.
 
PHILIPPE HAD BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 240/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD COURSE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...EQUATORWARD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY 36 HOURS...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A COMPLEX AND AMPLIFIED
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND SLOW BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE BY 72 HOURS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST THIS CYCLE AND IS NOW
FORECASTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD NOTED
AT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER RE-LOCATION AND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THEIR
BETTER HANDLE ON THE BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MOTION. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS IS FOR PHILIPPE TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 72 AND 120
HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN SHEAR OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
A FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGING UPON PHILIPPE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...
PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS BELOW THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FORECAST OVER PHILIPPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 23.7N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 23.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 23.9N  60.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 24.5N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 25.3N  61.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 28.7N  56.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 30.3N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC