Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WRAP AROUND
THE CIRCULATION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND ADT VALUES
FROM UW-CIMSS. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR IN
36-48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KT OR
HIGHER OVER PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A
SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE FSSE...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AND BRING PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATTER
SCENARIO APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT.
 
PHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BEYOND
THAT...PHILIPPE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE LEFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 16.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 17.2N  39.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 18.4N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 19.8N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 21.2N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 23.2N  45.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 24.5N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 25.5N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC