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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE
IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS PULSED A COUPLE OF TIMES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE APPEARANCE
OF THE CYCLONE ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY IS QUITE RAGGED...
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT.  PHILIPPE IS BEING
KEPT AT 50 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.
 
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND
ITS MOTION IS CURRENTLY 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 40W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
AZORES.  THIS SHOULD KEEP PHILIPPE ON A NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER 48 HOURS.  PHILIPPE SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE
EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW BY DAY 3...BUT THE MODELS APPEAR
TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZORES.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...PRESUMABLY
BECAUSE IT HAS PHILIPPE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AND BEING
STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  ASSUMING THAT THE REAL STORY WILL END
UP BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS BUT
SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE WEAKER
ECMWF.  

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS PHILIPPE REACHING
HURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND IS HIGHER
THAN ALL OF THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER SHEAR.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 14.1N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 15.0N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 16.0N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 16.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 17.8N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 20.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 23.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 25.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC