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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A
NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30
KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD
AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO 
EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING
OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE
ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 12.5N  30.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 13.3N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 14.4N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 16.7N  35.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.3N  37.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 26.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC