Tropical Storm OPHELIA
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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 18 33
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 2 6 33 36
TROPICAL STORM 48 36 29 36 48 44 30
HURRICANE 52 63 70 61 45 5 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 48 51 49 40 32 5 2
HUR CAT 2 3 9 15 14 9 1 X
HUR CAT 3 1 2 5 6 3 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 75KT 70KT 40KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 22(36) X(36) X(36)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
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