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Hurricane OPHELIA


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HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N  61.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  25 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  45SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N  61.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  62.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.9N  60.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.4N  56.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.9N  48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  45SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 50.5N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...  0NE 240SE 240SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 56.0N  17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 400SE 400SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N  61.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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