Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THE EYE
HAS BECOME LARGER...BUT REMAINS CLOSED. THE MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-LEVEL EYE AND ROTATION SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. OPHELIA
IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND WILL
BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
COLD WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OPHELIA WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/29 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 AND 24
HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SHIP DATA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 41.6N  59.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 45.2N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 48.6N  48.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/0600Z 51.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1800Z 56.0N  25.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:06 UTC