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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
DURING ITS SECOND LIFETIME...OPHELIA HAS BEEN AN OVERACHIEVER AND
HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY.  THE BERMUDA RADAR EARLIER INDICATED
THAT THE EYEWALL WAS QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED PRESENTATION.  MORE
RECENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WARM WELL-DEFINED EYE...A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T VALUES WERE NEAR 115 KT AT 00Z...WITH
CIMSS ADT VALUES REACHING 122 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 120 KT.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS...AND THE DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SHOULD BE QUITE RAPID BY MIDDAY TOMORROW DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND OPHELIA CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...010/23.  A
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD
BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OPHELIA NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFTWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OF THE GENERALLY RELIABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL
LIKELY BE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT
TIME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT SOME DISTANCE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  
 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 33.8N  62.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 37.4N  61.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 42.5N  59.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 46.5N  53.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 49.5N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/0000Z 53.0N  22.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:06 UTC