Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE EYE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME WARMER
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL STAYING DEEP. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM 102-112 KT...SO
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME VALUES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE
THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING
WATER TEMPERATURES. AFTER DAY 2...A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD WATERS
AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING OF OPHELIA AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A BAROCLINIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
OPHELIA IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS BECOME STRONGER BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING OPHELIA COMING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST BEYOND 36 HOURS.  FUTURE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT HAVE
TO BE MADE BECAUSE THE NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 26.2N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 28.5N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 32.4N  62.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 37.2N  61.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 42.5N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:06 UTC