Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
OPHELIA HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE WAS ALREADY CLEARLY OBSERVED ON
EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 5.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE THIS MORNING. SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN
MORE DISTINCT...AND THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
BEEN AVERAGING NEAR 5.5 WITH RAW NUMBERS RECENTLY REACHING 6.0.  ON
THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100
KNOTS...MAKING OPHELIA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON A SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON.
 
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY...AND ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS
RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC FORECAST SINCE IT IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 23.5N  62.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 25.2N  63.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 28.5N  63.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 32.1N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 37.0N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 46.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1200Z 52.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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