Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.  ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES.  THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A
HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  THE TRACK OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 17.6N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.7N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 25.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 29.5N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 37.5N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:05 UTC