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Tropical Storm OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011
 
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT OPHELIA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY ADVISORIES ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED. WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA TO CONTRADICT EARLIER
ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 295/10 KT.  

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE MORE LINKED TONIGHT THAN
USUAL.  OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT KIND OF INTENSITY
OPHELIA CAN MAINTAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF...USUALLY THE MOST
RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW OPHELIA CONTINUING TO BE BATTERED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY SHEAR AND THEREFORE SHOW A WEAKER
VORTEX MOVING FARTHER WEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER
MODELS INDICATE THAT OPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSEQUENTLY TURN
NORTHWARD STEERED BY DEEPER FLOW.  BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS OPHELIA AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AND LEANS IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESURE AT ANY TIME IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT IT NO LONGER
HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...NHC WOULD NO
LONGER ISSUE ADVISORIES UNLESS IT REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 18.3N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 18.9N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 19.8N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 20.6N  62.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 21.3N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 23.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 24.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 26.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:05 UTC