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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       3       6       5       4       3       5
TROP DEPRESSION 15      27      29      22      18       9      13
TROPICAL STORM  82      67      60      61      59      53      54
HURRICANE        2       4       6      13      20      36      28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       4       5      11      16      28      23
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       3       5       4
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       1       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    40KT    40KT    45KT    50KT    60KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE          34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34 69   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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