Tropical Storm MARIA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 6 5 4 3 5
TROP DEPRESSION 15 27 29 22 18 9 13
TROPICAL STORM 82 67 60 61 59 53 54
HURRICANE 2 4 6 13 20 36 28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 4 5 11 16 28 23
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 3 5 4
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 34 69 X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
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FORECASTER BROWN
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