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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       2       2       2       2       2       2
TROP DEPRESSION 12      15      13       8       5       3       3
TROPICAL STORM  86      75      71      56      44      29      26
HURRICANE        2       9      15      34      49      66      70
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       8      12      26      35      40      36
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       5      10      18      19
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       4       7      13
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       1       2       2
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    60KT    70KT    80KT    90KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   X(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)   X(21)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   5(32)   X(32)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
PONCE          34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   6(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   5( 5)  27(32)   6(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1  23(24)  29(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1  23(24)  14(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  7  62(69)   7(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 24  48(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BARBUDA        34 42  35(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
BARBUDA        50  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34 62  21(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
ANTIGUA        50  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 73   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
GUADELOUPE     50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AVES           34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
DOMINICA       34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:00 UTC