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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011               
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       8      12      15      10       7       6
TROP DEPRESSION 33      49      45      41      27      17      11
TROPICAL STORM  64      41      40      41      53      56      52
HURRICANE        1       2       3       4      10      20      31
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       2       3       3       9      17      24
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       1       1       3       6
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    30KT    30KT    30KT    40KT    50KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  16(26)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   7(24)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   5(26)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   2(16)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)   1(17)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   2(20)   X(20)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   7(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:58 UTC