Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE LEADING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON A DEVELOPING
TREND...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...
FOLLOWING THE LGEM MODEL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS
IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY FAST ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THESE
TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BIASED A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE
ECMWF.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 11.8N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 12.3N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 12.9N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 13.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 14.5N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 17.0N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 19.5N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN