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Tropical Storm LEE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       4      12      32      48      62
TROP DEPRESSION  4      11      24      30      36      30      22
TROPICAL STORM  90      78      65      51      31      19      13
HURRICANE        6      10       8       6       2       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5       8       6       6       1       2       2
HUR CAT 2        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    50KT    45KT    40KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   9(17)   1(18)   1(19)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   8(19)   5(24)   1(25)   1(26)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 
MOBILE AL      34 11   8(19)   6(25)  11(36)   4(40)   1(41)   X(41)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 29  12(41)   7(48)   6(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)
GULFPORT MS    50  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
STENNIS SC     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
STENNIS SC     50  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURAS LA       50  1   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 13   5(18)   2(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
JACKSON MS     34 14  11(25)   7(32)   6(38)   2(40)   1(41)   X(41)
JACKSON MS     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
JACKSON MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  7   7(14)   2(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  5   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  4   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  8   4(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  2   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:56 UTC