Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       2       4       5       9      17      44
TROP DEPRESSION 36      16      16      11      17      25      29
TROPICAL STORM  60      74      60      62      58      49      22
HURRICANE        1       7      20      23      17       9       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       7      17      19      14       7       4
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       3       2       1       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       X       1       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    45KT    55KT    55KT    50KT    40KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   3(15)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   3(19)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   3(19)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)  10(20)   3(23)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)  11(21)   9(30)   4(34)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)  12(22)   8(30)   3(33)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)  13(19)  13(32)   7(39)   2(41)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   3( 4)   8(12)  17(29)  13(42)   6(48)   2(50)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   X(14)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS SC     34  1   4( 5)  12(17)  19(36)  13(49)   4(53)   2(55)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   X(16)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   9(10)  17(27)  15(42)  12(54)   3(57)   2(59)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   7(16)   2(18)   1(19)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   6( 8)  12(20)   7(27)  12(39)   4(43)   3(46)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  12(16)  10(26)   6(32)   1(33)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1  10(11)  18(29)  18(47)  10(57)   3(60)   1(61)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)   2(20)   X(20)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 23  24(47)  14(61)   4(65)   5(70)   X(70)   1(71)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  1   5( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   2(17)   2(19)   X(19)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  1   9(10)  17(27)  16(43)  13(56)   3(59)   X(59)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   1(17)   1(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  1  16(17)  22(39)  10(49)  12(61)   1(62)   X(62)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  6  21(27)  16(43)   3(46)   8(54)   X(54)   1(55)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   4(14)   X(14)   1(15)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   1(16)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  1   4( 5)   9(14)   8(22)  11(33)   X(33)   X(33)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   4(15)   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   6(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   6(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   7(20)   X(20)   1(21)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN