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Hurricane KATIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011               
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       3       7
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       2       8      18
TROPICAL STORM   X       1       5       9      26      50      54
HURRICANE       99      99      95      91      71      39      20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      10      23      31      40      30      18
HUR CAT 2       21      32      37      29      19       6       2
HUR CAT 3       69      47      29      24      10       3       1
HUR CAT 4        7       9       6       7       2       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  105KT   105KT   100KT   100KT    90KT    75KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   3(18)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   9(21)   5(26)   X(26)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:55 UTC