Tropical Storm KATIA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION  1       2       1       1       1       1       1
TROPICAL STORM  67      49      27      17      14      12      14
HURRICANE       32      50      72      82      85      86      85
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       30      42      50      43      34      32      33
HUR CAT 2        2       5      16      23      27      27      24
HUR CAT 3        X       2       5      13      19      22      22
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       3       5       6       6
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    65KT    75KT    85KT    95KT   100KT   105KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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