Tropical Storm KATIA
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TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X X
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 1 1 1
TROPICAL STORM 47 36 29 18 14 13 14
HURRICANE 53 63 70 81 85 86 85
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 51 49 43 35 32 33
HUR CAT 2 3 9 15 23 26 27 24
HUR CAT 3 1 2 5 13 19 21 22
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 3 4 6 5
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 100KT 105KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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