Hurricane KATIA
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HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
0900 UTC THU SEP 01 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X X
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 1 1
TROPICAL STORM 26 14 8 10 11 10 16
HURRICANE 74 86 92 90 88 89 83
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 67 57 37 33 31 29 33
HUR CAT 2 5 21 34 28 27 28 24
HUR CAT 3 1 7 18 23 23 25 21
HUR CAT 4 X 1 4 6 6 7 4
HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 90KT 95KT 100KT 105KT 105KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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