Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KATIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011

KATIA IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STATUS.  THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT PROMINENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE CENTER.  THE STORM ALSO
HAS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT
55 KT...BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODESTLY WARM WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE OF KATIA WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND
DISPLACE THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.  IF THAT
OCCURS...KATIA WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 4 OR 5. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  AS KATIA NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 14.6N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.1N  44.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.8N  47.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 16.6N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 17.7N  52.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 20.0N  55.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 22.0N  58.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 23.5N  61.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:56 UTC