Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
 
A DECREASING BURST OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE DILEMMA WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS THAT WHILE THE CENTER IS STRETCHING THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR STORM
FORCE. GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE DECLINING
CONVECTION...IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO LEAVE IT AS A DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE
WAS A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY.

WHILE ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED...PROBABLY DUE TO POOR LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE.  AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL OR DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM...THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATERS IN A FEW
DAYS.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY...AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
DEGRADATION IN STRUCTURE FOR THAT TO OCCUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/7. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE SYSTEM NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...
LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE FORECAST IS
WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 14.9N  34.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 16.4N  35.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 17.4N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 18.3N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 19.5N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 21.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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