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Tropical Storm IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       4       9      15      16      17      19
TROP DEPRESSION 10      35      33      30      25      24      26
TROPICAL STORM  88      59      54      50      51      51      46
HURRICANE        2       2       4       5       8       8       9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       2       3       5       7       7       8
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HALIFAX NS     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MONCTON NB     34  8   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 14   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 22   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34 84   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
AUGUSTA ME     50 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PORTLAND ME    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PORTLAND ME    50 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CONCORD NH     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CONCORD NH     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BOSTON MA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BOSTON MA      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PROVIDENCE RI  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HARTFORD CT    50 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MONTAUK POINT  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEWARK NJ      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:49 UTC