Tropical Storm IRENE
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 8 16 18 19 25
TROP DEPRESSION 4 22 35 32 25 25 29
TROPICAL STORM 90 71 54 47 50 49 42
HURRICANE 6 6 3 5 7 8 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 5 3 4 7 7 4
HUR CAT 2 X X X X 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PTX BASQUES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MONCTON NB 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ST JOHN NB 34 7 14(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
EASTPORT ME 34 18 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
EASTPORT ME 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 41 8(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
AUGUSTA ME 34 66 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
AUGUSTA ME 50 26 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
AUGUSTA ME 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORTLAND ME 34 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
PORTLAND ME 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
PORTLAND ME 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CONCORD NH 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
CONCORD NH 50 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
CONCORD NH 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BOSTON MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BOSTON MA 50 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HYANNIS MA 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NANTUCKET MA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
HARTFORD CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HARTFORD CT 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTAUK POINT 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW YORK CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW YORK CITY 50 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
NEWARK NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEWARK NJ 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
TRENTON NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TRENTON NJ 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DOVER DE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
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FORECASTER PASCH
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