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Tropical Storm IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2       8      16      18      19      25
TROP DEPRESSION  4      22      35      32      25      25      29
TROPICAL STORM  90      71      54      47      50      49      42
HURRICANE        6       6       3       5       7       8       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5       5       3       4       7       7       4
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       1       1       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    45KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PTX BASQUES    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 10   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MONCTON NB     34  1  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  7  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 18  14(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34 41   8(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  6   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34 66   6(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
AUGUSTA ME     50 26   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
AUGUSTA ME     64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORTLAND ME    34 81   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
PORTLAND ME    50 39   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
PORTLAND ME    64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CONCORD NH     34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
CONCORD NH     50 62   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
CONCORD NH     64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BOSTON MA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BOSTON MA      50 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HYANNIS MA     50 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NANTUCKET MA   50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PROVIDENCE RI  50 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HARTFORD CT    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MONTAUK POINT  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW YORK CITY  50 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 
NEWARK NJ      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEWARK NJ      50 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TRENTON NJ     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DOVER DE       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:51 UTC